A report released this week by the Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that if all states expand Medicaid eligibility under the ACA, Ohio's net cost over 10 years would be $3.1 billion (Source: "Expanded Medicaid could cost state $3.1B," Dayton Daily News, Nov. 26, 2012).
According to the KFF report (pdf, 61 pages), which was authored by researchers at the Urban Institute, Medicaid spending under full implementation of the ACA would cost Ohio an additional $6.7 billion between 2013 and 2022, with nearly half of the additional cost coming from the law's expansion of Medicaid to all Ohioans earning less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level (the Supreme Court's ruling in June made the expansion optional for states).
The report also found that full implementation of the ACA is expected to reduce the number of uninsured in Ohio by 991,000 by 2022, with 457,000 of that total reduction coming from the potential Medicaid expansion.
The researchers also estimated that the state is likely to realize $876 million in savings over the next 10 years because of a reduction in uncompensated care if it expands Medicaid eligibility. That figure does not include private-sector savings from reduced uncompensated care associated with the coverage expansion provisions in the ACA.
Ohio officials have indicated that a decision on whether to expand Medicaid eligibility is likely to coincide with the drafting of the state's biennium budget next spring.